GENEVA: A new report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecast that global temperatures will remain at or near record levels for the next five years, raising serious concerns about escalating climate risks and their potential impact on societies, economies and environmental sustainability.
According to the WMO’s Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, each year from 2025 to 2029 is projected to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, specifically the 1850-1900 average. Alarmingly, there is now an 80 percent chance that at least one year in this period will surpass 2024, the current hottest year on record. Moreover, the likelihood of at least one year exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels stands at 86 percent.
The WMO further reported a 70 percent probability that the five-year average temperature will breach the 1.5°C threshold, a significant rise from previous predictions—47 percent last year and 32 percent in 2023. This trend illustrates a rapidly intensifying climate situation.
The consequences of sustained high temperatures are wide-ranging. The report details that even a slight increase in global temperatures intensifies heatwaves, extreme rainfall, and droughts, as well as contributes to accelerated melting of ice sheets, sea level rise, and warmer oceans.
One of the starkest findings involves Arctic warming, which is expected to exceed the global average by more than threefold during extended winters, reaching 2.4°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Meanwhile, sea ice concentration is projected to decline further in critical zones like the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.
Regional rainfall predictions for May to September during 2025-2029 suggest wetter conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia, while the Amazon is likely to face drier-than-average seasons. Notably, South Asia is expected to remain wetter than average, although this may not apply to every season within the timeframe.
Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General, stated, “We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years… There will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.”
Barrett emphasised that continued climate monitoring and predictive science are vital for equipping global leaders with the information needed to adapt and respond effectively.
