Alpen Capital projects GCC student enrolment to rise by 1.5 million by 2029, driven by private investment, digital innovation, and population growth.
Dubai: Alpen Capital’s latest report forecasts a significant rise in GCC student enrolment, projecting a 1.5 million increase to reach 15.5 million by 2029. With a CAGR of 2.1% across the sector from 2024–2029, the K–12 segment alone is set to hit 12.9 million students.
Driving this surge are favourable macroeconomic conditions, population growth, and rising affluence across the region. The pre-primary segment is forecasted to grow fastest at 2.7% CAGR, while tertiary enrolment also shows strong momentum at 2.1%. Primary and secondary enrolments will see steady growth of around 2%.
Private K–12 schools are projected to expand at 2.3% CAGR, outpacing public schools at 2.0%. Despite this, public institutions—especially outside the UAE—will continue to dominate with a 70.8% share by 2029.
Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain its position as the region’s largest education market, accounting for 64.6% of student enrolments. Oman will lead in growth rate (3.3% CAGR), followed by Bahrain (2.4%), and the UAE and Qatar (2.2%).
To meet rising demand, the GCC will require over 2,800 new schools by 2029. Private school demand will grow by 2.4% CAGR, while public school demand will trail at 1.1%.
Alpen Capital highlights growing investor interest, with sustained economic growth and evolving education policies creating opportunities for both regional and global players. However, challenges persist. Rising operational costs, teacher shortages, and competition from premium international schools are pressing concerns for private operators.
Sameena Ahmad, MD at Alpen Capital, noted: “The GCC’s education transformation is driven by reforms, tech integration, and growing demand for quality education. Despite challenges, opportunities abound for scalable, innovative educational models.”
Hameed Noor Mohamed, Alpen Capital MD, added that M&A activity remains strong, spurred by rising demand for affordable schooling and EdTech adoption.
The report also points to greater focus on early learning and digital innovation. With government backing and foreign university expansions, the sector is aligning with global standards. Strengthening digital infrastructure and equipping students with future-ready skills remain central to long-term success.
