NASA has doubled the estimated asteroid impact risk for 2032, with asteroid 2024 YR4 now having a 2.3% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. Previously, the odds stood at 1%, but new observations have raised concerns.
Before panic sets in, scientists emphasize that the asteroid impact risk remains low, though they will continue tracking it closely. The International Asteroid Warning Network will monitor it until April, after which it won’t be visible again until June 2028.
How big is it? The James Webb Space Telescope will take a closer look in March 2025 to determine its exact size, currently estimated at 40 to 90 metres across. That’s big enough to cause serious local damage if it collides with Earth.
How dangerous is it? NASA has placed 2024 YR4 at Level 3 on the Torino Scale, meaning it’s worth monitoring but not catastrophic. If it does hit, the impact could be similar to the Tunguska event of 1908, which flattened 80 million trees over 2,150 square kilometres in Russia with the force of 50 million tonnes of TNT.
If 2024 YR4 is made of rock, it could explode midair, creating a massive fireball. If it’s iron, it may hit the ground, leaving a large crater. Understanding its composition and size is crucial in assessing the full asteroid impact risk.
So, should we worry? Not yet. But with NASA keeping a close watch, expect plenty of updates on this potential cosmic threat.
