Global temperature may exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels temporarily within 5 years

Geneva: There is an 80 percent chance that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels at least once in the next five years, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This highlights the urgency of meeting the goals set in the Paris Agreement on climate change, which focuses on long-term temperature increases over decades, rather than short-term spikes.

The WMO report predicts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 will be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline. It is highly likely (86%) that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, surpassing 2023, which is currently the warmest year on record.

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Additionally, there is a 47% chance that the global temperature averaged over the entire five-year period from 2024 to 2028 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This is a significant increase from last year’s report, which estimated a 32% likelihood for the 2023-2027 period.

The release of this report coincided with a major speech by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, who called for more ambitious climate action ahead of the G-7 summit in Italy from June 13-15. Guterres emphasized the critical need for global leaders to intensify efforts to combat climate change and to adhere to the Paris Agreement targets.

This report serves as a stark reminder of the accelerating pace of climate change and the importance of immediate and sustained action to mitigate its effects. The findings underscore the necessity for global cooperation and strong policy measures to prevent long-term damage to the planet and ensure a sustainable future.